Will Democrats Lose the House Majority in 2022?

Dr. Munr Kazmir
6 min readAug 17, 2021

Swing-district Democrats in close House races are facing tough questions about inflation, crime, and Afghanistan.

AFGE leaders and activists gather in Washington, D.C. for the union’s annual Legislative Conference. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi addresses the crowd. February 10, 2020. (Photo by Keith Mellnick AFGE)

Just as in Afghanistan, where the disastrous writing has been on the wall for months and ignored; Democrats in the House of Representatives may be sleepwalking towards electoral decimation in 2022.

From Politico to Axios, and beyond, progressive media minders are already ringing the alarm about a perfect storm brewing in 2022- one which could reshuffle the majority in the House of Representatives and install House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) in the coming year.

It would be an ignoble ending for current House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who would no doubt much rather pass her speakership on to another Democrat, and preferably a female one.

Pelosi might be the first, second and only female House Speaker in history, but she certainly doesn't expect to be the last.

Yet, like tumblers in a lock, conditions are shaping up to thwart whatever plans Pelosi might have had about preserving the Democratic majority in Congress, whether or not she retires in the near future.

In a number of swing districts, incumbent Democrats serving in Congress are announcing their intention to abandon promising reelection campaigns. The reasons they give vary; from “running out of steam” to running for Senator.

The outcome is going to be the same: Fewer Democrats in the House of Representatives.

Incumbents running for reelection have a better chance of beating their challengers; around 90% of incumbents survive their reelection campaigns. That so many incumbent Democrats in key races around the country are throwing away that advantage says what polls and media reports are careful not to say:

They don’t think they can win.

Incumbent Members of the House of Representatives, by and large, return to their districts quite often. They also maintain a sizable staff in those districts. This staff includes everyone from those working on the congressional side to campaign volunteers.

Members, and the people who work for them, know what is going on their districts; as well they should.