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Trump’s “Pennsylvania polling strength and consistency may be the most underreported trend of the 2024 election cycle,” says one analyst.
“Underreported Polling Suggests Trump Is Poised to Win PA,” politico Athan Koutsioroumbas predicted for Real Clear Politics on August 26, 2024.
“If the past is prologue, Donald Trump will win Pennsylvania,” began Koutsioroumbas in a dire warning. “Eight years ago this week, Hillary Clinton led in Pennsylvania by more than nine points; four years ago, Joe Biden led by nearly six points. Clinton lost Pennsylvania by less than a point, while Biden won it by more than a point.”
“Heading into the Democratic National Convention, the Emerson/RealClearPennsylvania poll showed Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a point,” he concluded. “Averaging together the Pennsylvania polling taken since Harris became the Democratic Party’s nominee, the state’s presidential race is a dead heat.”
“Considering the previous Pennsylvania election results, today’s polling suggests that Trump is poised to seize the largest margin of victory for a presidential candidate in Pennsylvania since Barack Obama’s eight-point win in 2008,” imagined Koutsioroumbas wildly, though adding, “It’s unlikely that Trump can duplicate Obama’s margin.”