‘Twas the Night Before Midterms

Election night rally, 2008 (source: Tony)

Progressive/Conservative Balance in a Democracy

Though the word ‘balance’ sounds peaceful, anyone who has ever tried to balance anything can tell you the process is anything but. First the scale tips one way, sometimes even wildly; then radically in the other way, rebounding back and forth. ‘Balance’, that tranquil, happy equilibrium, between the two sides only happens eventually, after so many dips back and forth. After shifts and adjustments, after many additions and subtractions.

So Which Way Will the Pendulum Swing Tomorrow?

No matter what the polls say, no one really knows.

Voters watch results of early polls 2016 (source: U.S. Embassy)

The Glaring Error in Polling

“If the Presidential election were today, for whom would you vote?”

What if only a certain type of person is willing to be polled?

Even the most carefully observed, scientifically conducted political polls are flawed for one key reason; the group of people polled, no matter how large, does not represent a true sample of the voting public.

Strange Bellwethers

Kanye West, Brexit and Tropical Trump

President Donald Trump signs an Executive Order promoting Agriculture and Rural Prosperity in America, during a roundtable with farmers and agricultural commissioners in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., Tuesday, April 25, 2017. Photo Credit: Shealah Craighead

Brexit

Brexit was something of a referendum on the European Union and its policies. Did the voters of Great Britan think the changes had been for the better? After the 2008 financial crisis, is it really that hard to understand why many felt the pendulum needed to swing back in a conservative direction?

Brazil Decides

Today, we have the recent election of the so-called “Tropical Trump”. In Brazil, voters have declared their belief that Jair Bolsonaro can help solve the ills that have plauged Brazil in the past years. A right-wing conservative whom many have sharly criticized, especially in the press, Bolsonaro rode a populus wave of sentiment to an election day victory that few felt likely to happen.

Kanye West

“Kanye West is the biggest piece of [expletive] on earth. Quote me.” said P!nk. Katy Perry, twitter; “F — — u Kanye. It’s like you stepped on a kitten.”. "What happened to you as a child?? Did you not get hugged enough??" Kelly Clarkson in an open, public letter to West.

Early Voting in Texas

The last bellwether I mention is early voting results in Texas: in 2014, 1.7 million Texans voted early, in 2018 more than 4.3 million have. With the migrant caravan in the news recently and the economy doing well by almost any metric, who are Texans coming out at double the 2014 rate to support this Election Day?

Mid-term Elections: Leadership at Stake

Who will control the House of Representatives?

Governors Races

Florida, Georgia and Wisconsin are three races to watch tomorrow as results come in.

A Referendum on Trump’s Policies

Mid-term elections are usually a reflection on the current adminstrantion in Washington. As each individual race throughout the nation is called, as each vote is counted, a picture will start to emerge. What will it show? Depends on who you ask.

It has convinced voters that the media hates Donald Trump.

The Million Dollar Question

Whether it’s a #bluewave or a #redstorm, the U.S. House of Representatives is getting a new Speaker of the House tomorrow.

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