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The Brittle Empire
Whatever else it is, the power of the Chinese Communist Party is brittle.
For Taiwan, there is bad news and worse news.
Bad news; the People’s Liberation Army might not move on Taiwan in 2023. Worse news; That’s only because the Chinese Communist Party has been heavily interfering in Taiwan’s upcoming 2024 presidential election and likely hopes to take over the country that way — in a bloodless coup.
Under the CCP’s One China policy, Taiwan — like Hong Kong before it — is considered part of China in the same way Vladimir Putin considers Ukraine part of Russia.
It isn’t the only parallel between the two conflicts, one having already escalated to a late-stage hot war and the other likely to in the near future. The CCP’s Xi Jinping has undoubtedly been watching Putin’s struggles in Ukraine with a mind to avoiding such a long, painful, and embarrassing conflict himself.
In Hong Kong, of course, the CCP was lucky. Covid19 did what the People’s Liberation Army tanks could never have done without a deafening outcry from the international community. The millions-stong, faultlessly peaceful marches, and protests for democracy were cleared, and suppressed; demonstrators dispersed. For their own good naturally; for the sake of public health only, of course.