Reversal of Fortunes: 2016 Polls and Betting Odds Favored Clinton at 80%

Dr. Munr Kazmir
4 min readMay 18, 2020

Betting firms lost millions after Trump’s upset victory in 2016. In 2020, polls show Joe Biden winning; the money is on Donald Trump.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaking with supporters at a campaign rally at the Intramural Fields at Arizona State University in Tempe, Arizona. November 2, 2016. (photo: Gage Skidmore)

What a Difference a Day Makes

In the annals of U.S. history, there are few moments which live up to Election Day, November 8 2016 for the sheer number of experts it left dumbfounded.

And in the new internet tradition of “photos taken right before something bad happened”, the photos of Hillary Clinton and her supporters smiling and exultant, mingling at her ill-fated victory party on election night, and at campaign events in the days leading up to her defeat, rank fairly high as well.

In 2016, everyone who was anyone thought Hillary Clinton was a shoo-in. Not least of which were Republicans and Donald Trump himself.

All the polls predicted Hillary Clinton would win by a landslide; the betting odds heavily favored Clinton. Everyone in the media was convinced Hillary Clinton was going to be the first female President of the United States.

When did it become clear to members of the press that Hillary Clinton was losing the election to Donald Trump?

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