Recession? What Recession?

Cracks in the U.S. economy may be compounding, but are we really poised on the brink of a financial crisis?

Photo by Valdemaras D. on Unsplash.

“Big banks are quietly cutting thousands of employees, and more layoffs are coming,” reported Hugh Son for CNBC on October 19, 2023.

“Pressured by the impact of higher interest rates on the mortgage business, Wall Street deal-making and funding costs, the next five largest U.S. banks have cut a combined 20,000 positions so far this year, according to company filings,” wrote Son.

It was a stark reminder that the U.S. economy remains shaky, even as consumers keep dodging the full-blown recession some economists have been predicting for two years.

There were more ominous signs to come.

“The Trusted 60–40 Investing Strategy Just Had Its Worst Year in Generations,” fretted Eric Wallerstein for The Wall Street Journal later the same day. “Higher interest rates and inflation are upending millions of Americans’ retirement planning. Wall Street’s boilerplate mix of stocks and bonds isn’t cutting it anymore.”

“For generations, financial advisers touted the 60–40 strategy as the single best way for ordinary people to invest,” Wallerstein reflected sadly. “The idea is simple: owning stocks in good times helps grow your wealth. When stocks have a bad year, bonds typically…