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Polls Are Failing Us Again
Unreliable polls are everywhere this year.
“Yes, the Polling Warning Signs Are Flashing Again,” sighed the New York Times resignedly on September 12, 2022, remarking that, “Democrats are polling well in exactly the places where surveys missed most in 2020.”
“Why Are Pollsters Disagreeing About the 2022 Midterms?” wondered Ed Kilgore for the Intelligencer on October 2, 2022.
“Forget the Polls,” added Nick Catoggio the next day. “Let’s Talk About Vibes.”
From complaining that likely Republican voters aren’t community-minded or courteous enough to answer polls to hoping for an anemic rural turnout to save Democrats on November 8, media hot-takes on the midterm election have run an impressive gamut.
Poll-mania this election season has reached a fever pitch.
“Most Candidates Who Think 2020 Was Rigged Are Probably Going to Win in November,” complained FiveThirtyEight last Tuesday. It’s a sentiment being echoed in many media corners as the final days of the 2022 midterm cycle tick away.
Democrats are expecting a rout, mostly due to poor polling numbers. The finger-pointing has already begun in earnest, with political pundits and consultants eager to insulate themselves from the impending ballot box disappointment.