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Lies, Damned Lies, and Election Year Polling

Dr. Munr Kazmir
6 min readMar 2, 2024

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According to the polls, former President Donald Trump is on track to unseat incumbent President Joe Biden in November. But is he?

Former President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with attendees at the Republican Jewish Coalition’s 2023 Annual Leadership Summit at the Venetian Convention & Expo Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. October 31, 2024. (Photo: Gage Skidmore)

Voters Doubt Biden’s Leadership and Favor Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds,” blared the New York Times headline today.

It was a sight most unwelcome to the Democratic Party, which has pinned its hopes on incumbent President Joe Biden to defeat Trump in November.

“The share of voters who strongly disapprove of President Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency,” Shane Goldmacher revealed for the NYT.

“With eight months left until the November election, Mr. Biden’s 43 percent support lags behind Mr. Trump’s 48 percent in the national survey of registered voters,” Goldmacher wrote.

“Only one in four voters think the country is moving in the right direction,” he added. “More than twice as many voters believe Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them as believe his policies have helped them. A majority of voters think the economy is in poor condition.”

Biden Economics is Bad Economics,” was the opinion of Sanjai Bhagat and Marlo Oaks at Real Clear Policy.

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