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Dark Economic Clouds Threaten Dems in the Mid-Terms
To avert disaster, the Democratic Party must stop fretting about the message and listen to the working-class.
Polls, as worthless as they have become at predicting the outcomes of elections, can still occasionally reveal something useful if you look at the data wholesale.
It isn’t just that polls are almost always wrong these days; it is that they are engineered, manipulated models based on old random sampling methods which don’t work anymore and haven’t been replaced by new ones.
A poll- commissioned by a political party, candidate or media company- can be made to say just about anything. Re-wording a question can solicit both a “yes” and a “no” response from the same respondent, a phenomena with which polling companies are only too familiar.
Polls, and polling methods, tend to skew Democratic, over-sampling progressive voters and missing huge swathes of more-conservative and rural voters who are hard to reach by phone or online.
We’ve seen empirical proof of this in every election since 2016, and before. Pollsters missed Brexit before they missed Donald Trump. In 2020, polls were proven more unreliable than ever. In 27 out of 27 toss-up races Democrats were projected to win, they lost.