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Could Erdogan Lose Turkey?

Dr. Munr Kazmir
5 min readApr 27, 2023

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The same troubles haunting President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign are plaguing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (President of Türkiye) and Joe Biden (President of the United States). July 1, 2022. (Photo: NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization)

“AL-Monitor/Premise poll: Turkey’s election in dead heat, Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu tied at 45%,” announced the independent Middle Eastern news outlet AL-Monitor this week. “An exclusive poll across Turkey showed economy as top issue for voters, followed by corruption and refugees. But many young voters are still undecided in the final stretch of the race.”

The presidential race in Turkey mirrors the struggles faced by leaders in many nations in the aftermath of Covid19: High inflation, layoffs, a sluggish and stalling economy, and the ruling party on the defensive.

While the AL-Monitor sample size for its statistical survey was fairly low, a growing number of news outlets, political analysts, and foreign policy experts have been growing less optimistic about President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s reelection chances.

“If Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu race against each other during a runoff vote who would you vote for?” was the key survey question for the startling poll.

“The survey found a statistical tie as support for Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu stood at 45.2% and 44.9% respectively,” reported the AL-Monitor staff. “By contrast, the country’s previous elections had seen the gap between…

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